甘艳,何靖萱,邹建明,吕华林,杜志叶,蔡泓威,黄菁雯

• 1:国家电网公司华中分部
• 2:武汉大学电气与自动化学院

摘要(Abstract)：

高比例新能源的逐步接入改变了电力系统的运行方式，新能源接入配网侧的变压器运行环境也发生了极大改变，基于传统电力系统“源随荷动”的变压器风险评估体系已无法满足现有新型电力系统“源荷互动”的评估需求。基于Copula模型与变压器Susa模型，建立风电接入的新能源配电网中“源”“荷”新型相关性模型，并引入绝缘劣化概率等指标，提出了一种考虑风电-负荷相关性的变压器运行风险联合概率评估方法，利用蒙特卡罗法计算各个风险指标值并对变压器运行风险进行评估。研究结果表明，传统不考虑“源”“荷”相关性的变压器评估体系会导致整体风险评估结果偏低，指标最高误差可达55.02%，且随着相关性提升，变压器热缺陷风险不断增加。研究结论可辅助提升新型电力系统变压器运行风险等级评估准确度，为今后变压器状态评估与检修计划制定提供参考。

关键词(KeyWords)： 源荷相关性;风电-负荷相关性;变压器;Copula函数;蒙特卡罗法

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家自然科学基金项目（51977152）;; 国家电网公司华中分部科技项目（5214AJ220017）~~

作者(Author): 甘艳,何靖萱,邹建明,吕华林,杜志叶,蔡泓威,黄菁雯

DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202212233

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