徐冬梅,张杰,刘学广,邹君文

• 1:浙江省电力锅炉压力容器检验有限公司
• 2:国网浙江省电力有限公司电力科学研究院

摘要(Abstract)：

大型太阳能光伏电站中的环网柜工作环境复杂多变，面对温差大、潮湿等恶劣环境，极易发生环网柜运行故障，影响太阳能光伏的安全稳定接入并网。环网柜温湿度具有明显的线性和非线性变化特征，基于环网柜内部温湿度实测数据，利用自回归移动平均（ARIMA）模型和径向基函数（RBF）模型对线性和非线性数据处理能力的优势，构建ARIMA-RBF权重组合温湿度预测模型，对某光伏电站实际环网柜内温湿度进行动态预测。预测结果表明：相较于单一模型，ARIMA-RBF权重组合模型的预测精度更高、稳定性更好；该组合模型通过适当的加权策略充分发挥了单一模型对数据不同特征的处理能力，能较好地评估环网柜内部温湿度状态，可为建立更具普适性的预测模型提供参考，并有助于减少环网柜因长期超温和潮湿环境下运行引起的故障。

关键词(KeyWords)： 太阳能光伏;环网柜;温湿度;非线性耦合;权重组合预测模型

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 国家电网有限公司科技项目（GJRD2021-04）~~

作者(Author): 徐冬梅,张杰,刘学广,邹君文

DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202309163

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