汪臻,李国庆,傅望安,邓巍,王海明,赵勇,苏人奇

• 1:西安热工研究院有限公司
• 2:中国华能集团有限公司
• 3:华能(浙江)能源开发有限公司清洁能源分公司

摘要(Abstract)：

可靠性模型是可靠性分析的基础，传统的可靠性建模以整个系统为研究对象，通过利用所有故障数据对系统的分布函数进行拟合、参数估计和模型优选，以确定系统的分布类型及分布函数，进而计算系统的可靠性指标。风电机组是一个典型的复杂机电系统，各子系统的功能、结构以及故障形式各不相同，用一个分布函数来确定整个系统的故障分布显然不合适。对此，基于收集整理的风电机组故障数据，提出基于分布函数优选的风电机组可靠性建模和分析技术，利用常用的指数分布、正态分布、对数正态分布、威布尔分布和伽马分布，对风电机组各子系统的故障间隔时间进行分布函数拟合、参数估计和拟合优度分析，确定了各子系统故障间隔时间的分布函数和子系统可靠度函数。在此基础上，采用Copula连接函数，在考虑子系统故障相关性的基础上，建立了风电机组的整机可靠度函数模型，并以某海上风电机组的故障数据为例进行了实例分析，验证了所提方法的可行性。

关键词(KeyWords)： 风电机组;分布函数;可靠性建模;故障相关性分析;可靠性分析

Abstract:

Keywords:

基金项目(Foundation): 中国华能集团有限公司总部科技项目（HNKJ20-H72-02）~~

作者(Author): 汪臻,李国庆,傅望安,邓巍,王海明,赵勇,苏人奇

DOI: 10.19666/j.rlfd.202403082

参考文献(References)：

• [1]王达梦.以可靠性为中心的风电机组机会维修策略研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2020:1.WANG Mengda.Research on the reliability centered opportunistic maintenance foe wind turbines[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2020:1.
• [2]孙承婧,毛振攀,张弈鹏.基于智慧运营系统的风电机组可靠性统计与分析探讨[J].风能,2023(3):96-99.SUN Chengjing,MAO Zhenpan,ZHANG Yipeng.Reliability statistics and analysis of wind turbine based on intelligent operation system[J].Wind Energy,2023(3):96-99.
• [3]张嘉琪.基于随机故障率的风电机组可靠性分析与维修策略研究[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2022:1.ZHANG Jiaqi.Research on reliability analysis and maintenance strategy of wind turbine based on random failure rate[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou Jiaotong University,2022:1.
• [4]秦子川.风电机组可靠性评估与预防性机会维修策略研究[D].兰州:兰州交通大学,2021:1.QIN Zichuan.Research on reliability evaluation and preventive opportunity maintenance strategy for wind turbine[D].Lanzhou:Lanzhou Jiaotong University,2021:1.
• [5]刘喜梅,崔阳,董建明,等.基于风电机组可靠性的风电场平准化成本模型研究[J].太阳能学报,2022,43(10):304-311.LIU Ximei,CUI Yang,DONG Jianming,et al.Research on levelized cost model of wind farms based on wind turbine reliability[J].Acta Energiae Solaris Sinica,2022,43(10):304-311.
• [6]张志春.双馈风力发电机组运行可靠性建模及若干相关问题研究[D].天津:天津大学,2017:1.ZHANG Zhichun.Research on operational reliability modeling of doubly-fed wind turbine and several related issues[D].Tianjin:Tianjin University,2017:1.
• [7]ZHANG X,KANG J,JIN T.Degradation modeling and maintenance decisions based on Bayesian belief networks[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2014,63(2):620-633.
• [8]张穆勇.基于运行数据的风力发电设备可靠性分析方法和评估技术的研究[D].保定:华北电力大学,2015:1.ZHANG Muyong.Research on the analysis method and evaluation technology of wind turbine reliability based on the operating data[D].Baoding:North China Electric Power University,2015:1.
• [9]王钧.基于泊松过程的风电机组可靠性评估方法研究[D].北京:华北电力大学,2017:1.WANG Jun.Study on reliability assessment method of wind turbine based on Poisson process[D].Beijing:North China Electric Power University,2017:1.
• [10]KANG J,SUN L,HAI S,et al.Risk assessment of floating offshore wind turbine based on correlation-FMEA[J].Ocean Engineering,2017,129:382-388.
• [11]LI H,CHO H,SUGIYAMA H,et al.Reliability-based design optimization of wind turbine drivetrain with integrated multibody gear dynamics simulation considering wind load uncertainty[J].Structural&Multidisciplinary Optimization,2017,56(1):183-201.
• [12]MOHSEN S,AVAL M,AHADI A,et al.A novel method for reliability and risk evaluation of wind energy conversion systems considering wind speed correlation[J].Front Energy,2016,10(1):46-56.
• [13]WADHVANI R,SHUKLA S.Analysis of parametric and non-parametric regression techniques to model the wind turbine power curve[J].Wind Engineering,2019,43(3):225-232.
• [14]HABIBI N,HOWARD I,SIMANI S.Reliability improvement of wind turbine power generation using model-based fault detection and fault tolerant control:a review[J].Renewable Energy,2019,135:877-896.
• [15]符杨,苗育植,黄玲玲,等.基于改进贝叶斯网络的风电机组动态可靠性评估[J].电力自动化设备,2022,42(11):32-39.FU Yang,MIAO Yuzhi,HUANG Lingling,et al.Dynamic reliability evaluation of wind turbine based on improved Bayesian network[J].Electric Power Automation Equipment,2022,42(11):32-39.
• [16]XING Y Y,WU X Y,JIANG P,et al.Dynamic Bayesian evaluation method for system reliability growth based on in-time correction[J].IEEE Transactions on Reliability,2010,59(2):309-312.
• [17]PENG W,HUANG H,LI Y,et al.Bayesian information fusion method for reliability assessment of milling head[J].Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2014,50(6):185-191.
• [18]李芷筠,戴志辉,焦彦军.小样本失效数据下保护可靠性的贝叶斯-蒙特卡罗评估方法[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2016,28(5):9-14.LI Zhijun,DAI Zhihui,JIAO Yanjun.Bayes Monte-Carlo reliability assessment method of protection systems with small failure samples[J].Proceedings of the CSU-EPSA,2016,28(5):9-14.
• [19]TALAFUSE T P,POHL E A.Small sample reliability growth modeling using a grey systems model[J].Quality Engineering,2017,29(3):455-467.
• [20]MA Y,ZHANG J,QIU J.Reliability analyzing method of small sample structures and mechanisms based on Bootstrap-SVR-SOC[J].Journal of Beijing University of Posts Telecommunications,2018,41(4):81-85.
• [21]YANG J,WANG J,HUANG Q,et al.Reliability assessment for the solenoid valve of a high-speed train braking system under small sample size[J].Chinese Journal of Mechanical Engineering,2018,31(1):1-11.
• [22]陈飞,周俊宇,陈伟.一种基于模糊理论的雷达可靠性评估方法[J].科技与创新,2022(15):7-9.CHEN Fei,ZHOU Junyu,CHEN Wei.A radar reliability evaluation method based on fuzzy theory[J].Science and Technology&Innovation,2022(15):7-9.
• [23]HAND D J.From evidence to understanding:a commentary on Fisher (1922)'On the mathematical foundations of theoretical statistics'[J].Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences,2015,373(2039):1-8.